By 2040, Asia's economic development is expected to drive a 60% increase in liquefied natural gas demand.

  According to current industry forecasts, LNG demand will reach between 630 million and 718 million tons per year by 2040, higher than last year’s projections.

In 2024, due to constraints on the development of new supply, global LNG trade volume increased by only 2 million tons to 407 million tons—a year-on-year growth rate that was the lowest in the past decade. By 2030, more than 170 million tons of new LNG supply is expected to come online, which will help meet stronger demand for natural gas (especially in Asia). However, the timing of the start-up of these new LNG projects remains uncertain.

“The upgraded forecast indicates that the world will need more natural gas for power generation, heating and cooling, industry, and transportation to achieve both development and decarbonization goals,” said Tom Summers, Senior Vice President of LNG Marketing and Trading at Shell.

“LNG will continue to be the fuel of choice, as it offers a reliable, flexible, and adaptable way to meet growing global energy demands.”

China is significantly boosting its LNG import capacity, with the goal of connecting an additional 150 million people to piped natural gas by 2030 to meet growing demand. India is also advancing the development of its natural gas infrastructure, aiming to connect an additional 30 million people to piped natural gas over the next five years.

Paving the way for low-carbon gases

In the shipping sector, the steadily growing orders for LNG-powered vessels will drive market demand to over 16 million tons per year by 2030—representing a 60% increase from previous forecasts. LNG is emerging as a cost-effective fuel for both maritime and road transportation, helping to reduce today’s emissions and paving the way for the adoption of lower-carbon energy sources such as bio-LNG or synthetic LNG.

By the 2030s, Europe will continue to need LNG to balance the growing share of intermittent renewable energy sources in its power sector and to ensure energy security. In the long term, existing natural gas infrastructure could be repurposed to import bio-LNG or synthetic LNG, or alternatively, it could be converted to import green hydrogen for use.

The substantial increase in LNG supply will come from Qatar and the United States. The U.S. will consolidate its position as the world’s largest LNG exporter, potentially reaching 180 million tons per year by 2030—accounting for one-third of global supply.

Market tensions in 2024

At the beginning of 2024, spot LNG prices fell to their lowest level since early 2022; however, due to delays in the development of new supply capacity, prices rebounded somewhat by mid-year.

In the first half of 2024, Asia saw an increase in LNG demand, driven by China's import of 79 million tons of LNG throughout the year at lower prices. Meanwhile, India recorded a record-high LNG import volume, reaching 27 million tons—a 20% increase compared to 2023—due to hot early-summer weather that helped meet stronger electricity demand.

Although LNG continued to play a critical role in Europe’s energy security in 2024, its import volume declined by 23 million tons (19%) due to strong performance in renewable energy generation and limited recovery in industrial gas demand.

However, the low temperatures in winter and the seasonal lull in wind power generation at year-end have led to a significant drawdown of natural gas inventories in Europe. Coupled with the fact that the pipeline gas supply from Russia via Ukraine to Europe is set to expire on December 31, 2024, these factors have driven up LNG prices.

Europe is expected to import more LNG in 2025 to replenish its natural gas reserves.

For more information on the “Shell LNG Outlook 2025” (in English), please visit: www.shell.com/lngoutlook

Media inquiries

Shell China News Center: SCHINA-Spokesperson@shell.com

Disclaimer

The companies in which Shell Ltd. has direct and indirect investments are independent entities. For the sake of convenience, in this LNG Outlook Report, terms such as “Shell,” “Shell Group,” and “the Group” are sometimes used to refer generally to Shell Ltd. and its subsidiaries. Similarly, the terms “we” and “our” are typically used to refer to Shell and its subsidiaries or to individuals working for the company. These terms are also employed when referring to specific companies that do not carry any particular significance. In this LNG Outlook Report, the terms “subsidiary,” “Shell subsidiary,” and “Shell company” refer to entities that are directly or indirectly controlled by Shell. The terms “joint venture,” “jointly operated business,” “joint arrangement,” and “affiliated company” refer to business arrangements in which Shell, together with one or more other parties, holds direct or indirect rights and interests. For convenience, the term “Shell equity” is used to denote Shell’s direct and/or indirect ownership interest in an entity or unincorporated joint organization, after deducting all third-party equity holdings.

Forward-looking statements

This LNG Outlook Report contains forward-looking statements regarding the financial condition, operating results, and various business activities of Shell plc (as defined under the U.S. Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995). Except for historical facts, all other statements herein are or may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. A forward-looking statement is a statement about future expectations based on management’s current expectations and assumptions, which involves both known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance, or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements concerning market risks that Shell plc may face, as well as statements expressing management’s expectations, confidence, estimates, forecasts, plans, and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by the use of words and phrases such as “expect,” “believe,” “may,” “estimate,” “hope,” “intend,” “can,” “plan,” “target,” “outlook,” “perhaps,” “project,” “will,” “attempt,” “purpose,” “risk,” “should,” and similar terms or expressions. Shell plc’s future operations may be affected by numerous factors, which could cause its operating results to differ significantly from the forward-looking statements contained in this LNG Outlook Report. These factors include, but are not limited to: (a) fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas prices; (b) changes in demand for Shell Group products; (c) currency exchange rate fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserve estimates; (f) market losses and industry competition; (g) environmental and natural risks; (h) risks associated with identifying suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, as well as risks related to successfully negotiating and completing transactions; (i) risks of conducting business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) developments in legislation, fiscal policies, and regulations, including regulatory measures aimed at addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in different countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risk of expropriation and the risk of renegotiating contract terms with government entities, as well as risks of project delays or early completion, approval processes, and cost estimations; (m) risks related to the impact of infectious diseases, such as outbreaks of COVID-19, regional conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and severe cybersecurity breaches; and (n) changes in trade conditions. This LNG Outlook Report does not guarantee that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. The cautionary statements contained in or referenced in this LNG Outlook Report expressly limit all forward-looking statements included herein. Readers should not unduly rely on these forward-looking statements. For additional factors that could affect future performance, please refer to Shell’s Form 20-F (as of December 31, 2023, available at [website address]). www.shell.com/investors/news-and-filings/sec-filings.html

Shell’s “Net Carbon Intensity”

In addition, in this LNG Outlook Report, we may refer to Shell’s “net carbon intensity,” which encompasses the carbon emissions generated by Shell during the production of energy products, the carbon emissions generated by our suppliers in providing energy for these production processes, and the carbon emissions generated by our customers when they use the energy products we sell. Shell is responsible only for controlling the carbon emissions it directly generates. The use of terms such as Shell’s “net carbon intensity” is for convenience only and does not imply that these emissions are attributable to Shell or its subsidiaries.

Shell’s “Net-Zero Emissions” Goal

Shell’s operating plans, outlooks, and budgets are based on projections for the next decade and are updated annually. They reflect the current economic environment as well as the conditions we can reasonably expect over the coming ten years. Consequently, they align with our Scope 1, Scope 2, and “net carbon intensity” targets for the next decade. However, Shell’s operating plans do not yet reflect our net-zero emissions target for 2050, as this goal currently extends beyond our planning horizon. In the future, as society gradually moves toward achieving net-zero emissions, we anticipate that Shell’s operating plans will increasingly mirror this trend. Nevertheless, if society fails to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, the risk that Shell may not be able to meet its 2050 net-zero target now appears very significant.

Forward-looking non-GAAP metrics

This LNG Outlook Report may include certain forward-looking non-GAAP metrics. We are unable to adjust these forward-looking non-GAAP metrics into the most comparable GAAP financial metrics because some of the information required for such adjustments depends on future events beyond Shell’s control, such as oil and gas prices, interest rates, and exchange rates. Moreover, it would be extremely challenging—and would require disproportionate effort—to estimate GAAP metrics that are consistent with the company’s accounting policies and achieve the necessary level of accuracy. The non-GAAP metrics for future periods cannot be adjusted into the most comparable GAAP financial metrics; their calculation logic remains consistent with the accounting policies adopted in Shell Limited’s financial statements.

The website content mentioned in this LNG Outlook Report does not constitute part of this LNG Outlook Report.

In this LNG Outlook Report, we may have used terms that are strictly prohibited by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) guidelines from being included in filings submitted to the SEC. Investors are urged to carefully review our Form 20-F, File No. 1-32575, available on the SEC’s website. www.sec.gov